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Comment 1 for Carbon Neutrality: Social Cost of Carbon and Affordability (cn-social-cost-ws) - 1st Workshop.
First Name: G
Last Name: Naugles
Email Address: G@Balance2thrive.com
Affiliation: Balance2thrive(R), Stanford, CSUCI
Subject: Discount Rate
Comment:
Thank you CalEPA and panelists for making this discussion public. The topic of Discount Rate is interesting in terms of short and long term effects as they influence present value decision making. The parallels between monetary policy and climate change impact mitigation investments as they relate to business and consumer decision making are interesting. Relationships between discount rate, the federal funds rate, and inflation are important. I believe reasonable discount rates are a function of the federal funds rate and inflation is a function of money supply, which is in turn a function of the federal funds rate and multiplier effects that occur with borrowing now to pay debt in the future. Current US Presidential Administration policies and Fed policies seem dedicated to driving down the federal funds rate to stimulate the US economy. This also would seem to increase the supply of dollars and drive the value of the dollar downward, which is recognized as generally positive for manufacturers who export from the US to other parts of the world. The other countries have followed suit, devaluing their own currency in lock step with the United States. How this affects decisions regarding investment in renewables and the Social Cost of Carbon is interesting. A)On one hand the low federal funds rate and the consequent lowering of mortgage rates and other lending rates would seem to increase incentives to spend now in order to decrease carbon emissions. Furthermore: 1)models mentioned today suggest that decreasing carbon emissions in the present is more valuable from a common good point of view than the same actions in the future, 2)higher income businesses and households are still enjoying a peak of prosperity, making it easier to invest in decarbonized energy technologies, 3) These concepts suggest spending now to decarbonize may present significant gains. On the other hand we have a presumption of a 7% discount rate, not supported by any academics according to Anthoff, which motivates businesses and consumers to wait. Further incentives to wait include: 1)the relatively lower cost of future decarbonization investments related to technology advancement, 2)opportunity costs while the economy is enjoying a prolonged recovery before its next recession which is now years over-due, 3)yesterday's session mentioned the residence time in our atmosphere of CO2 and other GHG's emitted today is thousands of years, and 4)many decarbonized energy technologies have significant embodied fossil fuel energy impacts including but not limited to carbon footprint or GHG footprint and marketers frequently underestimate and publish unrealistic payback periods. Can we please get our rates straight? Unfortunately, I have to admit that a 7% discount rate might make sense in a 7% average inflation scenario . . . which may very well be what we are building towards under current administration pressure on the FED to keep cutting the federal funds rate.
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Date and Time Comment Was Submitted: 2019-08-16 12:34:57
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