Comment Log Display

Comment Log Display

Below is the comment you selected to display.
Comment 1 for Carbon Neutrality: Social Cost of Carbon and Affordability (cn-social-cost-ws) - 1st Workshop.


First Name: G
Last Name: Naugles
Email Address: G@Balance2thrive.com
Affiliation: Balance2thrive(R), Stanford, CSUCI

Subject: Discount Rate
Comment:
Thank you CalEPA and panelists for making this discussion public. 

The topic of Discount Rate is interesting in terms of short and
long term effects as they influence present value decision making. 
The parallels between monetary policy and climate change impact
mitigation investments as they relate to business and consumer
decision making are interesting.  Relationships between discount
rate, the federal funds rate, and inflation are important.  I
believe reasonable discount rates are a function of the federal
funds rate and inflation is a function of money supply, which is in
turn a function of the federal funds rate and multiplier effects
that occur with borrowing now to pay debt in the future.  Current
US Presidential Administration policies and Fed policies seem
dedicated to driving down the federal funds rate to stimulate the
US economy.  This also would seem to increase the supply of dollars
and drive the value of the dollar downward, which is recognized as
generally positive for manufacturers who export from the US to
other parts of the world.  The other countries have followed suit,
devaluing their own currency in lock step with the United States. 
How this affects decisions regarding investment in renewables and
the Social Cost of Carbon is interesting.  

A)On one hand the low federal funds rate and the consequent
lowering of mortgage rates and other lending rates would seem to
increase incentives to spend now in order to decrease carbon
emissions.  Furthermore:  
1)models mentioned today suggest that decreasing carbon emissions
in the present is more valuable from a common good point of view
than the same actions in the future,
2)higher income businesses and households are still enjoying a peak
of prosperity, making it easier to invest in decarbonized energy
technologies,
3)
These concepts suggest spending now to decarbonize may present
significant gains.

On the other hand we have a presumption of a 7% discount rate, not
supported by any academics according to Anthoff, which motivates
businesses and consumers to wait.  Further incentives to wait
include:
1)the relatively lower cost of future decarbonization investments
related to technology advancement, 
2)opportunity costs while the economy is enjoying a prolonged
recovery before its next recession which is now years over-due,
3)yesterday's session mentioned the residence time in our
atmosphere of CO2 and other GHG's emitted today is thousands of
years, and
4)many decarbonized energy technologies have significant embodied
fossil fuel energy impacts including but not limited to carbon
footprint or GHG footprint and marketers frequently underestimate
and publish unrealistic payback periods.

Can we please get our rates straight?  Unfortunately, I have to
admit that a 7% discount rate might make sense in a 7% average
inflation scenario . . . which may very well be what we are
building towards under current administration pressure on the FED
to keep cutting the federal funds rate. 

Attachment:

Original File Name:

Date and Time Comment Was Submitted: 2019-08-16 12:34:57



If you have any questions or comments please contact Office of the Ombudsman at (916) 327-1266.


Board Comments Home

preload